La caduta odierna dei mercati segna necessariamente l'inizio della recessione in america e un periodo di rallentamento per l'intera economia mondiale.
Cosa sta succedendo? Cosa succederà?
Provo a rispondere!
Innanzitutto è successo che gli USA sono stati fino ad ora il principale motore della crescita mondiale, ovvero assorbivano coi loro consumi l'aumento di produzione mondiale. Gli USA importavano sempre di più e pagavano in dollari, i quali essendo moneta di riserva mondiale venivano 'assorbiti' dal sistema economico mondiale e venivano reinvestiti sempre negli Stati Uniti finanziandone la crescita ulteriore. Così gli americani non avevano bisogno di risparmiare to grow because they could get back and spend their dollars to finance investment. Americans spend to import and abroad send back dollars in investments in government securities or other assets. In particular, China currently has an awful lot of debt in the U.S. state. Of course such a system is strongly unbalanced in the 'balance of trade' can not go on forever. When it becomes more risky or less profitable to invest in the U.S., foreigners get tired of holding all this cash in U.S. dollars and begin, as some Arabs and even the famous model Giselle Bundken, to require payments in euro. In short, is the first sign Crunch the dollar for several years now, constantly loses against the euro. First indication we had that something was changing. In addition, this continuous investment, the continuous influx of dollars to invest in the U.S., this flood of cheap money, created by a side access to credit is too easy to overestimate the effect of other major investments. American citizens are in debt as collateral giving overestimated values \u200b\u200bof their homes, using them as an ATM through the system of equity. Result, the bomb explodes, the real estate market is a big 'bubble', secured credit received is overstated and find people who can not repay the installments the mortgage is in fact insolvent. Result HOLE outcry. The banks, moreover, were convinced of being able to eliminate the risk of diluting the world through debt securitization, in practice they were selling them as bonds, thinking that this would cover any hole, but the idea of \u200b\u200bbeing able to eliminate the risk in this way is proved totally false! In short, the economic system is now forced to Rivered their beliefs, those who had the motto Greenspan era never before essersela bandage his head broken and that an economic system and further away from 'real' but instead increasingly indecipherable always based on more complicated financial instruments such as uncontrollable! The complexity del sistema è tale che nessuno è più in grado di stimarne la solidità con sicurezza. Ora la patata bollente passa alle banche centrali che devono salvare il salvabile, ma è giusto salvare i banchieri che hanno messo il mondo in questa situazione? Ogni crisi porta con se una lezione e sicuramente questa crisi che si preannuncia la peggiore degli ultimi 20 anni, porterà con se la necessità di riconsiderare molte cose in campo economico. Alcune crisi nascono in seguito alle bolle derivate da una innovazione tecnologica che è stata presa con troppo entusissmo, come fu in passato per le ferrovie o in un passato più recente per internet, ma queste crisi lasciavano alla fine di questo processo di distruzione creativa l'innovazione tecnologica same, then a more modern world. What to leave this crisis rather than the idea that this system should be gatantito with a very much larger dose of seriousness? That's why this crisis is shaping up much worse, but leaves no real damage brings innovations!
However the United States need to import less and export more. They must start to save money, have to finance their own growth. The dollar, which has lost and is losing ground, helped in this process of improving the trade balance but the loss of the role of world reserve currency is likely to trigger a process leading to inflationary cost increases, the contraction in domestic consumption, reduction of power purchase wages, which in truth is currently too high. Now the reader may wonder: what has this to do with the collapse of Asian markets? Of course, if America ends up buying something like this to slow down and stop those that American consumers are the engine of its growth in China should read! China slows and together with the slowdown in China will slow the demand for raw materials that these countries have been growing lately. Result, these prices will fall as oil prices come down! Together with the reduction in oil and commodity prices should eventually be brought under control in Europe the rate of inflation so much concerned about our central bank and hence possibly a reduction discount rates will be possible for Europeans to support the crisis. The gold instead of in a situation like the current instability will continue to play its role as a safe investment and will not suffer setbacks. At the moment America is likely to enter into a phase like that unusual in Japan, with an economy that goes on for inertia. In all this it is interesting to note that, despite the fall of Wall Street today, American companies do not accuse the shot too, because this is convenient for those who do so many dollars 'shopping' in America by acquiring shares at a good price and also because corporate America, at the forefront of innovation and technology, are still very competitive in the world and it is often multi-distribute their interests around the globe, linking their growth and profitability not only to the U.S. market. Of course, if it shrank too will suffer heavy losses, but this should surely 'take' fairly satisfactory. At this juncture the great investor Warren Buffer, the oracle of Omaha, investing in the less modern and more robust, indicating clearly the new trend. Less Chiecchio, less instruments 'derivatives' and more concrete! In Asia, the decline in corporate profitability is likely to be heavy. But if U.S. consumers who fall absorb this slice of the global consumption? Who will be the new engine of growth world? Certainly China itself now has to grow in terms of domestic consumption. Countries such as Brazil or India do not seem ready yet, in fact, this role even though they represent the best hope for the future. Where then will these higher consumption? I think so in Europe, which despite being 'too' reluctant savers and increased consumption will be left with an increasingly strong currency in a position to enable it to play this role in spite of himself. The economic situation certainly much more stable core as the rest of the world makes it an attractive place to place all that savings in foreign currency which was the first in the U.S. and now no longer knows where to go. I think it will be us that from now on will end up with all the petrodollars that this has resulted in the past for America and that in the future will be for us.
How is Italy in all of this ... not good but with a hope, our production quality is less 'price sensitive' than the rest of the world and if we keep our export good hope to straighten a situazine but it must be observed carefully. Even now a battle we Italians play important and vital to maintaining our position as the country's first division and not to slip into the abyss. But this is all another story.
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