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dollar in free fall in oil leak!

For those who have not yet recognized the obvious, the dollar is going to peak oil and salt.

in fantastic graphics that can be carried out with the clear as the two things are completely connected.

Despite the minimum rise in the price of crude oil price end to our distributors immediately follows, however, the effect of increases in crude oil prices have dampened EDL bearing effect of the dollar dive! It 'is quite clear that the two things are connected!

One must ask: 'Which came first the chicken or the egg'? Or the oil goes down as a response to the dollar or the dollar falls in response to rising oil?

Explanation:

that the American economy alive is a 'special period' is evident. The world is watching with bated breath the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis. Then the U.S. has a deficit in its trade balance is also a known fact! But it seems also evident that there is no intention by the Federal Reserve to protect its currency from an impending devaluation and I say this because this write-down is in progress (except for some periods of inversion) as early as the 1999 date of birth of the Euro!

Could it be that our American buddies have decided to let the dollar devalue in order to keep that way at the same time controlling the oil with a type of reasoning: 'If you increase the price I devalues money 'and at the same time repair the trade balance by taking two birds with one stone? It will be their confidence that the U.S. economy is bound to double-locked with the economy Global crisis to make an event sconguirare at all costs not only by them but by all, to make sure that despite the devaluation on the whole are in a barrel of iron?

Or maybe it will be instead that the U.S. economy is very strong in crisis and forced to give up and devalue the currency in any South American country because they do not take it anymore? Will the Arabs broke to support the dollar and reinvest their profits in U.S. stocks and decided to make a change? Soon the price of petrol will no longer be determined in dollars and the dollar will suffer a serious questioning of its role as reserve currency?

Meditate people, meditate!

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The housing bubble is not instill a surprise ...!!!! Ducati

I mention another fine article by economy taken from http://www.politicaonline.net/forum/showthread.php?t=366856
The article deals with the housing bubble but can somehow adapt to speculation usually associated with cycles economici.Una easy reading for all would say that those who want to know more about the recent news may have the pleasure of reading.
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Schumpeter's lesson: real estate bubble, where are the economists?
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Well, it seems that the housing bubble about to burst. What is striking, however, is the absolute silence recorded among economists right now, in addition, also the comments of these days seem to completely ignore the fact that this was to be expected speculative crisis. The fact is that those who now occupies the economy does not know all the theories of the economic cycle, at least those models more attractive, dynamic and historically located, the current development theories (Harrod, Domar, Solow) appear to be overly influenced by the Walrasian paradigm, forcing algebraic with an explanatory power that are weak. Mathematical formalisms are not enough to confer authority to the analysis! Abstraction is only useful if it helps to understand the risk of sounding realtà.Correndo the topic, but I will have to redeem in the future, I summarize the theory of Schumpeter's business cycle: in it, drafted by the Austrian in 1911 and completed in 1939 (Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process, New York and London, McGraw-Hill, 1939, abridged edition edited by Rending Fels, New York and London, McGraw-Hill, 1939 of which a version Italian: The capitalist process. the economic cycle, Torino, Basic Books, 1977) is clearly stated that the development wave (cycle) is the form that economic development takes in the era of capitalism. But, assuming to start from any point of static equilibrium, what sets in motion the cyclical pattern? Schumpeter identifies internal causes and external causes to the economy, about the first (wars, earthquakes, etc.). The economist can not say anything, while the latter are technological innovations, which, since it is usually economic, sometimes end up the lens of economics. Schumpeter supposed to start from a situation of perfect static equilibrium, in which the assumptions of perfect competition apply, constancy of the population, lack of savings and everything you need to meet the requirements of a circular flow that repeats the same. We also assume that, in the model of capitalist society, there will always be the possibility of new combinations and people able and willing to implement them (the motivation is the prospect of profit). "Some people, therefore, designed and built, more or less rapidly, plans for innovation, anticipations of profit associated with different, and get ready to face obstacles related to both the new and unknown man are suppose [...] a new company, is a new installation and commission new equipment to existing firms. As for the necessary funds by the banks to lend them. Then withdraw money from cash balances so obtained, is to issue checks to those who provide goods and services, both have the necessary liquid to pay for these supplies. [...] He distracts from the previous destinations of the quantities of goods they need through its own demand for capital goods. Other entrepreneurs followed him, and still others after them in growing numbers, to innovate, which is becoming easier for those who come after, thanks to the accumulation of experience and the disappearance of obstacles' (p. 161). What we observe nell'esplicarsi of the above? First, Schumpeter assumes that entrepreneurs spend their deposits at once, except for a minimum reserve. Second, since there is no unused resources at the beginning (in the event of circular flow), the prices of factors of production will increase, and so did the money incomes and rates of interest. Third, the revenue increase, at the expense of entrepreneurs in investment goods, with those of workers temporarily employed at a higher salary, and those of all those who receive more payments. However, until this point, it is reasonable to assume that there is still an increase in production. This is what happens until the plant starts operating, the first contractor. "Then the picture changes. The new goods - that is, the new consumer goods - entering the market. If all goes as planned, are taken away immediately, just to those prices at which the entrepreneur expects to sell [...] A stream of revenue will flow into the account of the entrepreneur, a wise enough to repay during the life of the installation and equipment initially purchased, the total debt contract, plus interest, and leave a profit for the entrepreneur. [...] New businesses coming into operation one after the other and place their products in the market for consumer goods, increase the total production of consumer goods [...]» (pp. 163-164) . these new markets, according to Schumpeter, entering the market at a pace too claimed to be absorbed smoothly. In Specifically, the old business, pursuers, who have before them several possible scenarios, not raised according to a fixed rule: some are part of new scenarios, others are dying not being able to adapt, others are looking for a rationalization. However, even the competitive advantage of the driving force tends to fade, since, as they are products entering the market and the repayment of debts increase quantitatively important, entrepreneurial activity tends to decrease and eventually disappear altogether. Just push the business ceases to act, which moves the system from its previous area of \u200b\u200bbalance, the system embarks on a struggle towards a new equilibrium. Let's see then the first emergence of a cyclical pattern. Observables are "two different stages during the first of which the system moves away from a position of equilibrium under the pressure of business, while during the second approaches the equilibrium position to another. Each of these two phases is characterized by a particular sequence of events. It is enough that the reader think about what these phenomena, to find out exactly expressible by "prosperity" and "recession" (pp. 170-171). It is necessary to emphasize that nothing in the diagram indicates some kind of conclusion about the regularity of cycles and the duration depends mostly intensity of innovation, thus the cyclic process is structurally irregolare.Se innovations are embodied in new plant and equipment, consumer spending will increase at least as fast as spending on capital goods. Both will expand starting from the points of the system on which they had exercised the first impact and create the set of economic circumstances, which we give the name of prosperity. Hence the sign of two phenomena: first, the old companies will react to this situation and, secondly, many of them there "speculation." Those who want to take advantage of the situation, speculating, they will act on the assumption that the observed rates of change from their should continue indefinitely, and this attitude will advance the prosperity, causing a boom. In this way, the credit will not be limited to entrepreneurs and deposits will be created to finance the general expansion: each loan it raises another, as well as begin a series of price increases. Then come under those transactions that to become possible, involve an increase in actual or expected prices. Thus we have, in the cyclic process, the insinuation of the secondary wave, the effects of which overlap with the primary wave. The result of the new wave are the most visible of the first, since it is easier to see expanding the fire and the torch that has set it. Because of this difficulty, one often identifies the cause of speculation in the cycle, while neglecting the innovation that caused it, because more difficult individuazione.Anche prosperity secondary rupture is induced by a shift of the underlying process. Any state of prosperity, as ideally limited to essential primary processes, involves a period of failure that, in addition to the elimination of obsolete enterprises beyond any possibility of rehabilitation, results in a painful process of readjustment of prices, quantities and values, as they show the frame of a new balance system. Prosperity in the secondary are shaped rash actions, fraudulent, or otherwise unfortunate that not stand the test of the recession. The unsustainable speculative position involves many elements, including the deterioration of the minimum value of the other side elements will fall. So much of the current business and investment will suffer a loss when prices fall, as they will no doubt because the primary process. Also part of the debt structure will collapse. If you prevail in this case, panic and crisis, further adjustments become necessary, the values \u200b\u200bfall and every fall brings with it a further fall. For a time, the expectation pessimistic may play a decisive role, even though he does not hold up if not supported by objective evidence. It then outlines a cyclical pattern in four stages (note that in the first approximation, we found only prosperity and recession): prosperity, recession, depression, recovery. "Every time he plays a quantitatively significant meaning, this class of facts [the secondary wave] has a decisive effect on our scheme. Until we have taken into account, there were only two phases - "prosperity" and "recession" - in each unit of the cyclic process. But now we see that, under the pressure wave of speculation in the secondary and fall induced by it, our process, probably, but not necessarily, go beyond (in general, but can also remain below) the area which was moving towards balance. It crosses a new stage, that there was in the first approximation, and which will be defined by the term "abnormal liquidation" because of the fact that there is a downward revision of values \u200b\u200band a fall of operations, which are reduced - often random - below the equilibrium level. While during the recession there is a mechanism that seeks to bring the system toward equilibrium, now you develop a new imbalance: the system moves away again the area of \u200b\u200bbalance, as it did during the period of prosperity, but under the influence of a different thrust. Reserve at this stage, the term "depression". When the depression has followed its course, the system begins to resume its path towards a new area of \u200b\u200bbalance. This is our fourth phase, which we call "recovery" or "recovery". Then resumes the expansion up to the values \u200b\u200bof equilibrium "(pp. 181-182). Abandoning the assumption that innovation is the first reported the story, we must conclude that each phase of the cycle currently observable, and historically locatable, brings with whether the effects of previous waves and influence those later. Moreover, without loss of rigor and earning in realism, one must conclude that perfect competition is a phenomenon by no means frequent nell'ordinarietà the cyclical movement: the entrepreneurial drive is based on a world where imperfect competition, and innovation alter the same market, creating a situation for the innovator of competitive advantage which forces the others to adapt, in a first stage, the cost savings that allows the innovator's discretionary price is not observable in perfect competition. According to Schumpeter, the only real competition is established between the new emerging and old trying to survive, and this competition is neoclassical (host of the same companies that produce homogeneous goods) as a bombardment is the pressure to force a door chiusa.Schumpeter published in 1939 and these things seem to perfectly describe what happened in the housing market in recent years. Every economist should be careful to learn from theories so powerfully attached to the analysis of reality. It, however, the economics of our age prefer to overeat as mathematical formulas failed, leaving the economic system is overwhelmed and strangled by a financial system that has a short memory for ontological necessity: if market participants did capitalize on the past experience, warned by economists aware and not locked up in ivory towers, many disasters can be avoided. Instead, the speculative wave described by Schumpeter is emerging, the prospect of easy money and fast siren acts as a demon on the weak men, who hope to retire from the game on time and with pockets swollen. Someone there can. Others, more like Gollum from The Lord of the Rings, they fall into the fire so as not to give up their treasure ...
Carmelo Ferlito

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there! The phenomenon

Only one line for the Ducati world champion in Japan, where Capirossi wins Voting for the third in a row and Stoner is consecrated champion at age 21. After 34 years an Italian bike is back on top the world. Truly a great company of small stable of talent against the giants of Japanese motorcycles. Congratulations!

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Beppe Grillo

phenomenon sweeping the nation Beppe Grillo, a phenomenon of protest in many ways certainly acceptable, he said, 'neoqualunquismo' and perhaps, in some ways it is but I think it can sometimes be liberating and almost cathartic create the opportunity because people posters and vent their problems and their discontents. I have seen many shows of Cricket and I have always loved a lot only after the last show that I attended, I realized that Grillo has easy game to make a kind of 'Creative destruction' but which lacks the inexorable process of creation. Well, a show of Grillo is inexorably out convinced that there is nothing left to do ... we're doomed ... that the world is shit ... that there are no certainties in life and perhaps commit suicide if we do ourselves a favor. Though this may have some very important cultural and philosophical implications I thought but not worth ending up in psychoanalysis only for the passion I had for the distinguished comedian referred to above. You're right or wrong, I repeat not later than on the merits, that I maybe wrong, it does not matter ... the important thing is that dear Grillo not want to spend my next year to use drugs as a contraindication of your shows! And I want to paraphrase, if I tell you that when I come to your show and I pay the ticket you are my friend to become one of my employees, so if I do go home with stomach acid and pissed like a beast that is me are fully entitled to send to V! Complaining is so greatly liberating if you do it once in a while otherwise you end up going to be part of a group of people sadly on the rise in our country that the 'nonmivamaibeneuncazzo', one of those people who complain on principle, I repeat that the complaint is right or wrong, yet end up being only carry out their personality comuque against something. It 'important efforts to improve the world we live in but there is a measure in things ... and when someone says that the class of Italian politicians is not very different from its citizens, let us say a bassavoce, tuttosommato all the wrongs he has not, because we are a people full of qualities is true that we are good people, like us after all we are a nice people ... but we are a mass of piglianculo to use a term figuratively! Wanting to disturb Winston Churchill who said: 'It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tested so far', we must recognize that democracy, so if we want to call, has led to incredible improvements in relation to forms of government previously experienced by mankind. To claim now that this form of government functions well it might be good too, especially when the demos come from which representatives are always above the sleeve pigliainculo ...! Do not believe, because it would sadly repeat the mistakes that Europe has made too recently to be able to forget that revolutions nowadays you can do with violence in the streets or because democracy has given them a vote if well spent is worth much more than a bullet. For this well is the political project of Cricket, as it should be provided and become aware not only bring protests and drugs but shared proposals are real, possible, feasible! Otherwise there will be only rumors, stomach acid and populism. Criticizing is easy, we're all good at criticizing, it is difficult to build. We'll see.

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What happens to the dollar?


I quote a very good article by Peter Schiff.
After the signs of the U.S. mortgage crisis is perhaps appropriate to ask some questions and more in this article are the considerations made absolutely shared as we all know that the dollar is losing consistently on the Euro.
Certainly the U.S. economy is a train at full speed and pushed the question for the future is how will exceed the long climbs that await the slopes related to the rehabilitation and stabilization of an economy that can not claim to live in an eternal period of growth.

Insights: the dollar's days as a reserve currency WORLD
Posted on Monday, April 24 @ 19:31:43 EDT by cdcnet

Economics PETER SCHIFF

In the 20th century the dollar has become the reserve currency world as the currency of the world's largest economy. In the "strange" economy of the 21st century, this causality has reversed. The main reason for which, today, the U.S. economy is the first in the world is due to the fact that the dollar is still the world's reserve currency. However, if the basic principles of the market were finally able to impose themselves this reality may, indeed must, change as soon as possible.

In the past, foreign countries were trying to accumulate dollars in order to purchase goods manufactured in the USA. Today, however, the central banks of foreign countries accumulate dollars in order to allow Americans to buy foreign goods. In the past, the profits obtained from its exports have enabled America to become the world's largest creditor country. Today, to bridge the huge trade deficit, America has become the world's largest debtor. The "status" World allows the dollar to the "rich" Americans to borrow the savings of "poor" to buy their products. If the dollar did not enjoy the privilege of this condition the Americans would be forced to consume only their products, and borrow only from their domestic savings. If the reality was that the living standards of Americans would be much lower than what they enjoy today.

The price of the dollar, which in three years has dropped by 30% after five weeks of declines is a slight rise in the last week has not deviated more than 2% of the maximum fall of 1992 records. Because of the continued deterioration of the dollar, both a technical and fundamental, a review of the continuing declines is imminent. A significant disruption of the long support given to the dollar it can cause the landslide. Without a substantial and coordinated central bank intervention, the dollar may come to lose half its value. However, even if this massive effort, never happened before, will be successful, its effects may be only temporary. By now the imminent dollar crisis can not be avoided, but only delayed, but not with the effect of exacerbating the collapse.

At the dollar was accepted as a world reserve currency mainly because the world was flooded with American goods of low cost and high quality (also helped by the fact that it could be converted into gold). In America, the phrase "import" was synonymous with "it's expensive." If something did not work the comment was: "I should have done in Japan." In fact, the Japanese have had to sweat seven shirts in order to overcome this injury, so they called their town "USA," so they could put on their products: Made in USA ". Today the opposite is true. The import goods are cheap, while internal ones are expensive. Today the Japanese have a reputation for high quality which was the first of the Americans.

The main reason for the which the Americans were so competitive comparative advantage lay in their freedom. The U.S. industry was subject to low taxes and few regulations than the rest of the world. For more Americans were among the most frugal people, with high rates of savings in investment capital flowing back. The combination of little government interference with high rates of savings have allowed it to pay the highest in the world along with cheaper products. Today, America has high taxes and heavy regulations in the rest of the world, and even more, and its citizens are among the most profligate of all.

For a time, America was able to correct the its lack of exports to its trading partners by offering the promise of even higher revenues resulting from their investments in dollars. But since America now has the lowest interest rates in the world (in reality it is negative rates) together with the most overvalued stock market and real estate, foreign investors have more incentives to invest in dollars. It is no surprise that investors are the major central banks which, after all, commit taxpayers' money. There is no doubt that central banks now afraid, as acting for political reasons and not according to their interests, be buyers of last resort and that the days of the dollar as international currency exchange are about to end.

The main reason why the dollar continues to be regarded as the world's reserve currency is due to the fact that few people understood how the structure of the American economy has changed. In fact, the American economy works in a way that would be totally impossible if it were subject to market forces alone. Since this is the world's reserve currency the U.S. economy was able to ignore the laws of the market, however, evolved in a completely unnatural. The smoke signals recently launched by various Asian central banks, in respect of their intention to diversify the composition of their reserves, show now that the dollar's international standing is at risk. Once lost the privileged position the way back to a healthy and vibrant economy will be hard and painful, and will require a substantial austerity from the government and American citizens. If America will be equal to the task ahead is to be seen, however, remains optimistic even though I remain skeptical.

Peter Schiff,
CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
Source: http://www.prudentbear.com/homepage.asp
22:03:05

www.comedonchisciotte.org for translation by Vichi
link to the original: www.comedonchisciotte.net/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=73

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McLaren guilty but pays half



Debated ruling against McLaren, in summary:
-100 million-dollar fine
deletion of points in the 2007 world
also:
-evaluation of possible measures for 2008
-in If an appeal by McLaren chance to hit in the drivers points.

Rating:

-McLaren and Ferrari had undoubtedly projects
access to critical information such as the use of rubber-
McLaren benefited from this
-ERGO, a punishment was just and inevitable
-drivers
co-pilots were pardoned
-but the drivers themselves are taking the course benefit from a wrongful-
ERGO: the victory of these pilots, though 'legalized' in fact can not be right
from a sporting point of view

CONCLUSION: The federation does things by halves .... if they are not guilty are acquitted ... whether they are guilty, the punishment must be logical and recover the illegal act, the case is justice in half.

sports: I do not care at McLaren penalty, how many points the
fines or take away, I just want everybody to know
and is widely recognized because it is now indisputable that all
what McLaren has done this on track ' years is highly flawed and therefore ultimately
theft.

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Valentino Rossi, drop style ... hope goes back in the saddle! The potato


A fall style for Vale Rossi and I am not referring to his issues with the tax authorities to instill that I do not care nothing but criticism of the statements with Ducati guilty of being 'too fast'!
That was not a great season for Rossi it was seen. That no sample can win even the great and always there had also taught the great Schumacker. Sometimes there are also the conditions and sometimes there are technical and chases. This is part of motor sport. That, however, we were not accustomed to see the great champion that is critical of the system which has hitherto supported. I think this is a cut-off style. The bike of Valentino This year is not competitive in comparison with red arrows Ducati is possible, though questionable, since Capirossi certainly can not fly like Stoner and sometimes it is the merit of a great athlete, in this case and Stoner in the past that Schumy, to make their vehicles performance. But it should also say that the champion wins in sports engine always does it with a technical means within a world still shows its superiority. Vale has won 7 world with a bike better than the other and suddenly does not feel right to run against opponents who have a bike than his own. Vale said that the world is not fun and entertainment without overtaking ... Stoner but probably simply a different technique from that of Vale, Vale Sperr preferred to stay behind and over the last while Stoner prefers to create a vacuum. It had in the past often given the impression of being able to create a vacuum, but it probably was not right in his strategy to do it! Worth talking about single tire ... as if the work of the tire was not part of the game of the championship! The world of Moto GP is a comparison of package sizes from manufacturers, chassis, transmissions, engine and tire manufacturers, a comparison of engineers and technicians and finally a comparison between pilots. This is the Moto GP. If you want to make a comparison between the pilots are the only global brand, where the drivers are compared on the same bike. Perhaps it is them that can Valentino decided to go if the comparison in a category like the Moto GP's has become close! I've always been a big fan of Vale and I still am just not that the legendary number 46 to become gradually more and more like her old rival and plaintive: Max Biaggi.